Mobile app stores could peak in as little as two years, ABI Research warned today. It expects the download rate to peak by 2012 or 2013 and to slowly decline from then onwards. Downloads could still be popular with 1.2 billion apps downloaded in 2015, but the decline would be quick enough that companies may not want to depend heavily on apps in the long term.
Analysts didn't directly explain why they anticipated a drop, but oversaturation was considered a genuine problem. At 225,000 apps currently in the iOS App Store and 50,000 apps on Android Market, titles designed to promote a company or otherwise drive traffic already risk being drowned out by many others.
The prediction is an early one and could change significantly in the future. However, peak popularity could have a significant impact on mobile apps as customers may either turn more to the web or to features already built into smartphone-class devices.